Background Based on the China-VHD database, this study sought to develop and validate a Valvular Heart Disease- specific Age-adjusted Comorbidity Index (VHD-ACI) for predicting mortality risk in patients with VHD.
Methods & Results The China-VHD study was a nationwide, multi-centre multi-centre cohort study enrolling 13,917 patients with moderate or severe VHD across 46 medical centres in China between April–June 2018. After excluding cases with missing key variables, 11,459 patients were retained for final analysis. The primary endpoint was 2-year all-cause mortality, with 941 deaths (10.0%) observed during follow-up. The VHD-ACI was derived after identifying 13 independent mortality predictors: cardiomyopathy, myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary artery hypertension, low body weight, anaemia, hypoalbuminaemia, renal insufficiency, moderate/severe hepatic dysfunction, heart failure, cancer, NYHA functional class and age. The index exhibited good discrimination (AUC, 0.79) and calibration (Brier score, 0.062) in the total cohort, outperforming both EuroSCORE II and ACCI (P < 0.001 for comparison). Internal validation through 100 bootstrap iterations yielded a C statistic of 0.694 (95% CI: 0.665−0.723) for 2-year mortality prediction. VHD-ACI scores, as a continuous variable (VHD-ACI score: adjusted HR (95% CI): 1.263 (1.245–1.282), P < 0.001) or categorized using thresholds determined by the Yoden index (VHD-ACI ≥ 9 vs. < 9, adjusted HR (95% CI): 6.216 (5.378–7.184), P < 0.001), were independently associated with mortality. The prognostic performance remained consistent across all VHD subtypes (aortic stenosis, aortic regurgitation, mitral stenosis, mitral regurgitation, tricuspid valve disease, mixed aortic/mitral valve disease and multiple VHD), and clinical subgroups stratified by therapeutic strategy, LVEF status (preserved vs. reduced), disease severity and etiology.
Conclusion The VHD-ACI is a simple 13-comorbidity algorithm for the prediction of mortality in VHD patients and providing a simple and rapid tool for risk stratification.
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